February 21, 2014: More Intelligent Trial and Error

Trial and Error is the main method humanity uses to progress in all areas of life. A new idea is implemented, feedback is acquired from the results, and the idea is changed to better fit the results in a repeating cycle until satisfactory progress is made. While this process works out in most cases, there are a few questions worth asking ourselves regarding the “tried and true” method: Is this process efficient enough, and what are the repercussions of the “errors” accumulated through repetition? At what point do we avoid certain “errors” due to their unacceptability? The concept of intelligent trial and error addresses these questions and works to avoid any unacceptable errors (Woodhouse, p.69).

When preventative measures aren’t taken in the design process, catastrophic events become much more likely to happen. Rather than investigate further the harmful potential of large nuclear reactors, the world went ahead and built them anyway, with the motivation being not to fall behind other countries in harnessing nuclear power. In 1986, the Chernobyl nuclear reactor had a meltdown released radioactive particles all across the Soviet Union Europe. Without proper safety protocols, a meltdown was bound to happen eventually, whether it was at Chernobyl or another reactor. Had governments determined a large scale meltdown was unacceptable before the actual construction, perhaps it could have been avoided, but it is exactly this thought process of believing failure will not happen as opposed to take precautions to prevent large scale catastrophes that hamstrings the current trial and error process.

The key concept of intelligent trial and error is the precautionary principle. Rather than making an attempt and living with the consequences of a trial, precaution is used in intelligent test design to designate any possible errors, and parse out any potentially catastrophic errors before the testing stage2. A good example of the precautionary principle used in intelligent trial and error is the american ban on chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) in aerosol sprays in 1978. Without any concrete evidence that CFC’s were damaging the ozone layer, the EPA and congress worked to phase out CFC’s in everyday use long before it was the assumption of its ozone destructive properties was verified, saving us from ourselves by not doing irreparable damage to the ozone layer.

By using a more intelligent trial and error process, ideas and technologies are more able to keep their flexibility through methods such as phasing and making prudent decisions. Being able to analyze the pitfalls of regular trial and error in order to minimize its shortcomings, the learning process can become much more productive and safe for humanity.

References

“Precautionary Principle – FAQs”.  Science & Environmental Health Network. Science & Environmental Health Network, n.d. Web. 20 Feb. 2014.

Woodhouse, Edward. The Future of Technological Civilization. University Readers, 2013. Print.